Deforestation in Colombia has fallen to its lowest levels in 23 years, suggesting the government’s fight against environmental crime has yielded results. But criminal groups could also play a role in the decrease in destruction.

Colombia’s Minister of Environment and Sustainable Development Susana Muhammad announced on July 8 a 36% reduction in deforestation in 2023 compared to the previous year.  The number of deforested hectares fell from 123,517 hectares in 2022 to 79,256 hectares last year, according to a government report.

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The study was conducted with the Institute of Hydrology, Meteorology and Environmental Studies (Instituto de Hidrología, Meteorología y Estudios Ambientales – IDEAM), which is charged with producing technical and scientific knowledge about natural resources in Colombia. The departments most affected by this phenomenon were Caquetá (12,647 hectares), Guaviare (11,467 hectares), Putumayo (10,852 hectares), Meta (10,310 hectares) and Antioquia (8,139 hectares), all located in Colombia’s Amazon region, with the exception of Antioquia. 

The main drivers of deforestation were land grabbing, extensive cattle ranching, illegal roads, illicit crops, illegal mining and logging, and the expansion of agricultural lands beyond their legal limits.

The figures are the lowest in 23 years, making it an “iconic year in the fight against deforestation,” Muhammad said.

“We are meeting and exceeding our targets. We have identified that there is a direct association between peace and deforestation. Peaceful conditions generate reduction,” she added.

InSight Crime Analysis

Although the 2023 figure reverses several years of high levels of deforestation, it is important to note the role criminal organizations play in the fluctuation of this criminal activity.

Just a year after the signing of a peace agreement in 2016 between the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia – FARC) and the government, Colombia experienced one of the highest deforestation rates in the last 10 years. In 2017, the country reached its highest peak in a decade, with 219,552 hectares deforested as a result of the FARC’s departure from woodlands it had imposed strict control over.

Although deforestation dropped between 2018 and 2019 (to 197,159 hectares and 158,894 hectares respectively), it rose again between 2020 and 2021 as groups that rejected the peace agreement, known as ex-FARC mafia, got more involved in criminal economies such as illegal logging and mining. That was on top of an end to the restrictions on deforestation that their predecessors the FARC had imposed. 

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In 2022, the trend changed again. Prior to Gustavo Petro’s victory in the presidential elections, the Central General Staff (Estado Mayor Central – EMC), a confederation of ex-FARC dissident structures with a significant presence in the Amazon, adopted a policy of reducing logging in its areas of control, which reportedly had a positive effect on deforestation.

This rule was maintained through 2023, and it is possible that the EMC used it as a bargaining chip during negotiations with the Petro government. 

However, the emergence of divisions within the group, paired with the withdrawal of several dissident factions from peace negotiations with the government, puts the issue of armed groups and their relationship with the forest back on the table, especially those with control in the Amazon region and that could embrace illegal logging and other destructive criminal markets again. 

In that sense, the community-based approach that the government has prioritized with respect to the fight against environmental crime might not be enough to stop the armed groups from embracing deforestation as a business opportunity. 

“It’s impossible to enter some of the areas where deforestation is concentrated. So it’s very difficult for the government to implement conservation plans there,” said Juan Carlos Sandino, a conservation expert.

“Deforestation reduction programs and payment for environmental services are great, but they don’t attack the big loggers. The timber business has never stopped and never will because it’s so lucrative.”