Huddled in the back of a fruit and vegetable stand in the south of Culiacán, the hitman scanned the area as he described the order he received regarding fentanyl producers operating on the outskirts of Sinaloa’s capital city.

“They told us to kill anyone still producing fentanyl,” he explained. “There are only a select few close to the bosses who can produce.”

That kill order was put in place by the Chapitos faction of the powerful Sinaloa Cartel, led by several sons of the now-jailed former leader, Joaquín Guzmán Loera, alias “El Chapo.” The Chapitos have called on several groups of hitmen, known as “patrullas,” or patrols, to assassinate anyone still producing fentanyl.

The deadly synthetic opioid is at the heart of tensions between the US and Mexican governments, as it drives a record number of drug overdose deaths in the United States. US prosecutors have made a point of targeting members of the Sinaloa Cartel, which the Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) alleges to be one of two groups primarily responsible for trafficking large quantities of the drug.

SEE ALSO: An Extradition (and a Fentanyl Prohibition) as Mexico Tries a Counterdrug Reset

Since the Chapitos first demanded a halt to all fentanyl production sometime in the middle of 2023, the hitman said his group has killed dozens of cooks who defied the order in Sinaloa, which has become one of Mexico’s main synthetic drug production hotspots after decades of being a hub for marijuana and poppy cultivation. 

But while the Chapitos appear to have made some effort to put an end to fentanyl production in Sinaloa to stave off increased government pressure, growing evidence suggests that they and other factions of the group have simply migrated their operations north to be closer to the US-Mexico border.

“We haven’t killed anybody here in Culiacán for the last three months,” said the hitman, suggesting the few cooks remaining in the city may be following the order, while others have chosen to flee.

Northern Migration

The hitman saw an increase in work near the end of 2023, around the time a key member of the Chapitos, Ovidio Guzmán López, was extradited to the United States to face drug trafficking charges. 

Months after Ovidio’s arrest in January 2023, a series of banners began announcing the Chapitos’ fentanyl ban in Culiacán, which was later extended to the states of Baja California, Baja California Sur, and Sonora.

Four individuals, all of whom work in different capacities for criminal cells associated with factions of the Sinaloa Cartel, said the ban has pushed labs to migrate primarily to Sonora and Baja California.

“They’re offering us 20,000 pesos per kilo [around $1,200] to cook fentanyl in Mexicali,” in Baja California, one independent producer said. “There are fewer costs there, and it’s easier to cross the [US-Mexico] border.”

Law enforcement operations in that section of the border seem to support this claim. In October 2023, Baja California state authorities seized 35 kilograms of fentanyl from seven individuals accused of running a fentanyl lab in Mexicali. The following month, US border officials seized 840,000 counterfeit fentanyl pills at the port of entry connecting Mexicali to Calexico, California.

SEE ALSO: Fentanyl Seizures on US-Mexico Border at Record High Amid Production Ban

But while many independent fentanyl producers may have jumped at the opportunity to relocate their operations further north, the cook interviewed by InSight Crime said it is not worth it.

When he began cooking in the mountains surrounding Culiacán in 2020, his team earned as much as 60,000 pesos per kilogram (around $3,500) producing 10 to 15 kilograms of pure fentanyl per month, he said. But just before the ban took effect, he was only earning 15,000 pesos (about $900), which was divided among the six people who worked at the lab. Some consumer markets in the United States are seeing an oversupply of illicit fentanyl, which may partly explain the drop.

“The pay isn’t much, and there’s a lot of risk operating in that area right now,” he said.

In Mexicali, the security situation is more dynamic than in Culiacán, where the Chapitos face less competition and exert strict control in several areas.

In this criminally strategic desert valley on the US-Mexico border, the Rusos faction of the Sinaloa Cartel, which is allied with networks associated with Ismael Zambada García, alias “El Mayo,” has consistently battled rival cells backed by the Chapitos. The internal fighting over drug trafficking and migrant smuggling routes has been marked by mass killings and forced disappearances that have paralyzed local communities.

A Resurgence?

While the fentanyl ban and increased pressure from the US and Mexican governments against members of the Sinaloa Cartel have pushed one of the group’s primary income streams into a state of flux, sources interviewed by InSight Crime predicted a resurgence of fentanyl production in Sinaloa.

“Everything has changed,” said one individual in charge of brokering fentanyl shipments primarily to the United States. “Nobody has permission [to produce fentanyl], but some people close to the bosses still are at labs well-hidden deep within Sinaloa’s sierra.”

After the ban was put in place, authorities in Culiacán continued seizing fentanyl and counterfeit pills from makeshift laboratories. But the Chapitos and other Sinaloa Cartel factions are not the only players involved in the fentanyl trade.

The reality on the ground, according to those interviewed by InSight Crime, is that there are several autonomous actors with numerous backers — among them rival Sinaloa Cartel factions — who form different supply chains to produce fentanyl. Multiple US intelligence agencies also noted in a recent threat assessment that there has been a “fragmentation of fentanyl operations” in Mexico.

But in Culiacán, traffickers anticipate a rise in fentanyl prices due to the current controls on production. As demand remains high in primary markets like the United States, fentanyl production is likely to continue expanding and may even return to previous levels in Sinaloa.

“The money is too good,” said the broker.

*Miguel Ángel Vega contributed reporting to this article.

Featured image: A highway sign outside Culiacán spray-painted with “Chapisa,” a reference to the Chapitos faction of the Sinaloa Cartel. Credit: Parker Asmann / InSight Crime